Shen Nanpeng: After 10 years, 1000 vehicles running on the road, how many of the electric vehicles?

Zeng Yunxun: 400 vehicles.

Shen Nanpeng: If 15 years later, there are only 10 car companies in the world, how many people come from China?

Zeng Qun: I think 70% of the car companies are from China.

This is on April 9th, the 125th anniversary of the Shanghai Jiaotong University, “Ask the future – New Energy and New Energy Smart Automobile Enterprise Alumni High-end Dialogue”, sewing capital Global Executive Partner Shen Nanpeng and Ningde Times Director Zeng Zeng Qun’s question and answer.

In this basics of Shanghai Jiaotong Elderly alumni, there is a more relaxed, natural and natural. In addition, Zeng Qun also talked about the judgment of fuel cell vehicles and some sentiments for battery manufacturing.

Zeng Yun said that he does not want Ningde era to be defined as battery manufacturers, because there is another two major business directions in Ningde. With regard to the dispute between ternary and lithium iron phosphate, he believes that the total phosphate’s share will be rapidly increased.


Three major directions in Ningde Times

Do not satisfy only electric vehicle battery suppliers. Zeng Yun said that the battery is loaded into the car, which is the foundation of Ningde Times, but they don’t want to be defined as a pure electric vehicle battery manufacturer.

Zeng Yunxun expounded three development directions in Ningde Times.

First, I hope that the power battery is used as the core, the goal is to replace the mobile fossil energy. For example, the equipment that moves to the car or robot needs to use a battery. The battery is an efficient energy storage device.

Ningde Times Power Battery

Second, it is desirable to combine with energy storage and power generation, especially new solar cells. The goal is to replace the fixed fossil energy, “is the burning coal all day.”

In terms of energy storage and solar energy, the Yongfu shares of Ningde Times is representative.

As early as December last year, Ningde Times has launched equity cooperation with Yongfu Shares. On December 8, last year, Yongfu’s share announcement company’s control shareholders signed the “Shares Transfer Agreement” in Ningde, and the company held 14.57 million shares (accounting for 7.9998%), and the price of 212 million yuan is transferred to Ningde Times. At present, Ningde Times will become the third largest shareholder of Yongfu Shares.

Yongfu Shares have layout in the construction of energy storage technology and integrated charging stations, which is in force on large energy storage power plants.

In February this year, Yongfu Shares issued an announcement to cooperate with the company’s shareholders in Ningde Times, investing in Fujian Yongfu Electric Technology Development Co., Ltd. to achieve the new energy field (especially photovoltaic + energy storage) Deep cooperation and industrial layout of the field).

Third, intelligent and electric cooperation in specific areas. Zeng Qun mentioned the application on the mine, which expressed its mood when they saw the mine. In his opinion, it can be smart unidentified from the whole process of mining to the mine to the mine. “If you do this, save costs, reduce emissions, but also guarantee safety.”

Specifically, in 2020, Ningde Times and Henan Juma Intelligent Machinery Co., Ltd. established a joint venture company is a typical case. By integrated resources, the two sides provides full process solutions for electric wisdom unmanned mines technology research and development and industrial promotion.

There is an analysis that the Ningde era may provide power batteries, information digital centers and other infrastructure for unmanned minerals.

The layout of the automatic driving field is more than one. Last year, Ningde Times was first established with Pross to form an asset operation management joint venture; followed by the automatic driving star of Posheng investment.

It is the heavy card market, focusing on trunk logistics scenarios, independent research and development of L3 and L4 automatic driving techniques.

Posi is logistics, real estate, infrastructure, financial and related field investment management and commercial innovation companies.


Cooperation form: package production line + long-term cooperation

In the conversation, Shen Nanpeng asked a very interesting question. “So many car companies have to batter, you have fixed this year, how do you assign a battery in Ningde?”

Zeng Yun said that they have a variety of cooperation with car companies.

He raised two typical cooperative models.

One is a car company to have a plan. For example, in 5-10 years, the cooperation has reached 100GWH. In this case, the car company can pack the production line, or pay the money to purchase the production line, this is a relatively large form of cooperation.

There is also a form of long-term cooperation. For example, signing a long-term cooperation agreement requires that every year of car companies fluctuate in ± 15%, if the production of car enterprises do not meet the requirements, then pay the difference in this.

In Zeng Qun, “there is no money commitment, it is not serious.”


Plan: Market share and internationalization

Shen Nanpeng asked Zeng Qun, by 2030, predicts the market share of Ningde Times. Zeng Yun laughed, “If you work with Shanghai Jiaotong University, there may be 50-60%, the cooperation is not good, maybe the company does not exist.”

From the perspective of the installed data, Ningde Times has already got a half-Wanjiang Mountain in the Chinese market.

Source: China Auto Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance

For international strategies. Zeng Yun believes that when they are lucky, when doing a power battery, I will cooperate with BMW. It is itself an international company, so the battery can be used in Chinese products, and it can be used in their German products. So BMW, Mercedes, Volkswagen, PSA, Jaguar Land Tiger and other companies want Ningde Times to Germany to invest, so Ningde Times should also do their invitation.

However, for the German construction plant, Zeng Yun said that they compare Hesitate (hesitated). “They are very slow, the cost is also very high, and many things will be classified according to the class.” Zeng Qun raised an example, it mobacked the engine excavated car, and passed through the village when the village will be blocked, calling the environment, It is necessary to meet the meeting, or a fine, or there is a promise to make any contribution.

“This is also a kind of buying money, but it is another form.” Zeng Yun’s view, this layer is passed, the efficiency is very low.

In the view of Zeng Yun, Germany’s automobile and power battery industry is indeed worrying.


Recently optimating lithium iron phosphate,

3 – 5 years will not have a full solid-state equipment

Shen Nanpeng also mentioned the technical route problem, and after 3-4 years, two technical routes of three yuan and lithium iron phosphate were proportional to problems.

Zeng Qun believes that the growth rate of lithium iron phosphate batteries will be very fast because it is cheaper. Zeng Yunxun explained that more and more electric cars have no longer needed with more and more charging piles. “People who have not drifted electric vehicles are more anxious, and those who have truly open will not be anxious, so it should be the proportion of lithium iron phosphate will gradually increase, and the three-yuan accounting will decrease.”

In this regard, Zeng Yun also gave a more interesting example. When he was in the middle of the night, he would buy a bun, it would buy 4, 6, in fact, only 2-3, “this and The life is almost the same, you have to 600 (kilometers), in fact, 200 (km) is almost. “

However, there are still many high-end cars that require long-lasting, and the three yuan in high energy density still exist.

For lithium iron phosphate batteries, Zeng Qun has been optimistic about a few years ago. Zeng Yun said: “I remember someone three years ago and I mentioned that they said that this process of lithium iron phosphate, I don’t do it, no business, you see 80% -90% is three yuan, for a while, Lithium lithium phosphate is not there. I told him that I am completely wrong, I have to do it, so listen to me, just like a German nano, they will do it quickly, now it is very good, lithium lithium lithium lithium lysate must have Big use. “

What is the impact of product structure change? What is the impact of the upper reaches of the battery?

Zeng Yun believes that the supply chain of the ternary materials will have a huge change. Because the amount of nickel cobalt will be reduced, the other amount is that phosphate or lithium carbonate is still different, and lithium carbonate will decrease. Because a ton of cobalt acid lithium or the amount of lithium carbonate with phosphonate is different from the amount of lithium iron carbonate.

However, Zeng Yun believes that the future is not necessarily three yuan and lithium iron phosphate. “We have some new things, but don’t talk now.”

For solid state batteries, Zeng Yun judged, within 3-5 years, it is not a full solid state battery.


Fuel battery cost competition but electric car

There are also students to ask questions to the foreground of fuel cells. Zeng Yun believes that as a driving force, the fuel cell is probably competitive in the future. The hydrogen fuel is very good as the energy storage, such as Sichuan hydropower, can become hydrogen in water, no high pressure, 300 atmospheric pressure is enough (car requires 700 air pressure).

In Zeng Qun, the fuel cell is a medium, which is a medium between electrical and electricity. Hydrogen fuels can be transported from Sichuan to a factory in power plants. The battery is very expensive, transportation is too expensive.

Zeng Qun believes that the hydrogen fuel cell drives the car, it is not as good as the ideal extension. “Before doing a big battery, do something power generation, it is not necessarily a hydrogen fuel, but if 100% do not have carbon emissions, I may use hydrogen fuel to make a processor. But I think the whole system is still too complicated.”

For battery manufacturing, Zeng Qun is very deep. He believes that it is not difficult to do a battery, and a battery can be made casually. However, the battery is dangerous, and one car is string together. 1 million cars is 100 million cells, and the charge and discharge is 1000 times. A problem in this 100 billion charge and discharge is caused, everyone will I feel that there is a problem with the car.

In Zeng Qun’s view, the battery is easy to learn, no one can do it, but it is really not easy. Making a battery is a bitter, tired, focused. “Previous manufacturing talks about Six Sigma (3.4), now you need to do PPB (one billion), to make ultimate manufacturing.”


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