Huanglin Jingdong Science and Technology Artificial Intelligent Industry Innovation Research Center
I, the cruel reality of the automotive industry: enter the stock market from the incremental market
After more than ten years of growth in the Chinese auto market, the China Auto Market has become the world’s largest car production country and TOP1 new car consumption market after 2009. In the first half of 2020, China has accounted for 32.5% of the global car sales in that year, which is the highest in the past 15 years, and it is also expected to continue to increase.
It is such a largest single market. Since the 2017 China Auto Sales Station, the Chinese auto market has begun to go into the downlink channel. In 2018 and 2019, the domestic car market declined for two consecutive years, and the sales volume dropped from more than 2.8 million to more than 25 million. 18 years of sales growth rate drops to 2.8%, becoming a big market that is negatively growing.
Another important background is the largest target population in the automotive market: the size of the 25-30-year-old population, with the big trend of Chinese population aging, fell quickly.
The scale of the target passenger group is fell quickly, and the car ownership will continue to rise. The impact brought about, the first purchase group decreased, and the purchase group increased. The first purchase group decreased from 90% in 2017 to 70% in 2019; the exchange group was rapidly from 10% to 23% in 2017-2019; the purchase group was rapid from 0% to 7% from 2017-2019. The automotive industry has entered the market in the previous incremental market.
In 2021, with the gradual decrease in the influence, the automotive industry will recover overall. After the epidemic baptism, the advantages and disadvantage of the car companies in the value chain will be amplified, and the company has promoted business reshaping, technology transcendence, mode innovation, operation optimization and building its own moat’s best time.
Figure 1: 17Q1-20Q1, domestic passenger car quarter sales (10,000) and year-on-year growth Source: China Automobile Association, Xingye Securities Economics and Finance Research Institute
II, new challenges in the successful path of Fengyun change
In 2021, under the triple effect of epidemic impact and market weakness, sales model transformation, the auto market presents new changes.
1. Changes of consumer groups: mainstream groups are gradually transferring, from 90-00, they are becoming the main force of automobile consumption. The demand for consumers is also changing: a home type CRV can make consumers to queue queue, pay the premium. Today, consumers need personalization and convenience in addition to basic product performance and feature, and a full range of automotive life experiences. Of course, the price is best lower. Therefore, there is a main cross country + personalized Havaldog, cost-effective + personalized Wuling EV because it has enough cost performance, and there is a personalized appearance, and stands on the list of new energy vehicles.
2. Changes in purchase: Traditional 4S stores have more and less opportunities to contact consumers, and more and more consumers turned to the e-commerce platform, third party websites understand new cars, and order experience. The data of Cox Automotive, the number of days of new cars buying cars in the market has become less and less, and the average of 118 days in 2017 has been reduced by 89 days in 2020.
At the same time, the online purchase experience is decreasing, and more and more consumers do not believe that dealers can give the best price and service. The satisfaction of 2020 decreased by 6 percentage points compared with 2019, and the same Brand repospheries are also reduced.
3, car product softwareization + service: On the one hand, car products are close to the new four-way – intelligent, electric, net, sharing into the common direction and focus of industry pursuit. On the other hand, automotive products gradually transfer from a single hardware product to hardware + software + services, represents Tesla’s automatic driving FSD suite rental and the aware NAD service subscription mode.
4, business model diversification: different from the model of traditional cars to earn difference + after-sales service, and product service correspondence is a diversification of business models. The new business model will be similar to the underlying system-based mobile service, such as OTA upgrade, Internet content service, App docked, system license fee, etc. Finally, software definition cars, means that the automotive industry value chain will transfer from hardware to sustained software and service premium.
Figure 2: Tesla’s business model and its evolution path Source: Tesla, Guoxin Securities Economics Institute, Anxin Securities Research Institute
Based on 5G + Aiot + automatic driving, the future car will become a mobile intelligent service space, providing users with displacement services, and entertainment / information / value-added services in the process. Based on this, vehicle enterprises provide users more than just a car, as well as software + services that are bundled with car, and service experience of the full life cycle. Software and value-added services / user personalized service capabilities have become the core of the future competitiveness of car companies.
The core of the service is nothing more than three points: accurate understanding of the user, providing users with its needs information and services (bring value), and maintain a good experience during the process. Under the background of the current stock market, the routine playing of the car enterprise: developed the new product seizures market, price reduction promotion, the old upgrade and other successful paths have encountered challenges, gradually lost the effect, can’t give car companies to bring expectations. From the growth of the overall market, it is beginning to refine the focus on the sales distribution, advantageous market size, potential market growth rate and other dimensions. On the other hand, from paying attention to marketing, turn to the focus of users. More and more car companies have established users of user insights, user operations, user experience, etc., more accurate understanding of user needs, try to figure out user’s psychology, and even borrowed the Internet enterprise’s user operating system to better service users. To create a more in-depth user relationship, which in turn affects the behavior of the user, bringing the market growth. III, new play -1 + 3 system: user-centered, service is the product, experience is a word-of-mouth, satisfactory
It is a magical business like Xiaomi, which is like the millet industry. From unattended heavy service model, start, slowly find your path and moat. Taking the user-centered, emphasizing the full cycle of service pays attention to the user’s operation. From the first day of the birth, “user enterprises” is determined as the “original motivation and ultimate goal”. There are 6 million people with respect to each other in the NIO App, and there are 5 million concerns. It is basically unaffected by the average of 45% per month before it is more than 45%, which is basically unaffected by the epidemic, and the user’s introduction is 69%, and the sales breakthrough in the highest value in May 2020 is the only one. Selected a domestic brand of luxury SUV sales.
Figure 3: Uking user operation mode Source: 蔚 来
Under the magical user operating system, the bottom layer is the support of corporate values - from top to bottom, real, user-centered, design, manufacturing, selling, operateing and serving users. Ricefly + user participation in the year, there is a variety of work. The core is three words: user insight, user participation, user experience, of course, is also a three major events that are difficult to know.
Going to the entire car market, as a stock market, the car is driving on marketing, and the light is new, and there is no beautiful KPI. How do the current automotive industry doing a good job in market size and even users? Of course, you have to get new and old customers, potential customers (good presence / attention), operate users, manage experience, let users satisfaction and even beyond expectations, naturally bring word of mouth and repurchase, old, new, etc., for marketing Painted a beautiful result.
How to do user operation? In addition to establishing users – centered values, it is also necessary to establish a set of user operating systems, including some columns of membership systems, operational operations, content operations, market operations, data operations. And a complete set of user operations in large data + AI. Link users, channels, and products through digital techniques. Through the system to link the vehicle factory, direct store, 4S, dealer to a whole ecology, implement data interconnection, full-link management marketing + service, ultimately achieve intelligent operation of full link, full media, full data, and all channels.
The key to the user’s operation system is “1 + 1 + 3” – 1 center 1 platform, plus 3 basic points: user insight, user participation, user experience.
1 center: User-centered, more is a concept and values, and a method of approach, it is necessary to pay attention to the idea, sound and experience of the user from top to bottom, and to create users with all departments. Interface and user interaction to ensure that user feels on the same forward path.
1 platform: the user operation platform, the basic platform for users marketing / operation has experienced the growth process of CRM-> DMP-> CDP, the record of CRM focused on customer data, the DMP (Data Management Platform) is based on third-party data It is mainly to provide accurate population orientation and label refinement services for advertising. 2016 CDP (Customer Data Platform) Customer Data Platform is the real own customer data underlying platform, integrating behavioral data from internal and external customers, can facilitate the external system and application, including support brand main Marketing activities management, market analysis and business intelligence, etc. CDP manages user data with full life cycle perspectives, forms an accurate personalized service, and is equipped with automated marketing / services, incubation potential consumers. Based on CDP, architecture runs through insight into portraits, operations, and experiences management.
One of the three basic points: To do: Perspective of the external information of the entire external environment, industry and market, can also see the customer reputation and evaluation of the outside of the product / service to achieve external channels, traffic Monitoring, it is also possible to implement user panoramic portraits based on CDP, and realize the hierarchical population, and can implement the AI parsing of the population based on the scene model and algorithm.
The three basic points of the two users are involved: Here is more combined with the entire life cycle and customer journey, on the one hand, the customer can make more convenient expression, deliver your own feelings and feedback, while in the process design, let users participate To product design, optimization, iterative process, let users grow with the company’s product / service / brand, can also collect, summarize the attitude / behavioral data of customers, form various processes for backend sales, services, products. enter. 3 basic points of the three user experience: User experience is where most companies will ignore. Complete customer journey covers all users from browsing product information, on-site understanding, inquiry price, car decision-making, payment pick-up, maintenance services, etc. Any point of experience will affect users’ evaluation and reputation for products and even brands, which in turn affects subsequent purchase decisions and recommendation (which is why 69% of the far industry is more than 69% of the introduction rate. ). Before the system, it is only possible to conduct a post-sale phone research by customer service, and the efficiency is low and the sample is not comprehensive enough, and the actual experience of the company cannot be dynamically reflected. Based on user user operations middle platform, there can be system automatically complete attitude research, experience monitoring, and combine other dimensional data of CDP, transform into operational actions (such as warning work orders, improve work orders, detection and re-discipline, etc.) to actually improve The user is ambitting a worse point to deal with the car, and the user has recovered the user’s bad cognition, and the company will help enterprises to optimize their daily work and achieve the customer-centric positive circulation.
Figure 4: User-centered “Marketing + Service” operation system and Jingdong intelligent user operation middle Taiwan Source: Jingdong Science and Technology
The 2021 China Automotive Industry faces the double pressure of transition and upgrading and performance recovery. With the entering the stock market from the incremental market, the industrial transformation and upgrading is not only technical drivers, but also insight into customer changes, respect customer participation, and continues to create value for customers.
Take the user-centered, data + intelligence is driven, design and improve the user operating system, build a reliable smart user operation center, to realize users, market
Double growth does not lose a feasible path under heavy pressure.