The fuel demand of light cars (gasoline and diesel) achieves peak in 2019
According to a new analytical report, General Motors recently announced as part of its achievement of carbon and this greater goal, and the company plans to sell gasoline power vehicles in 2035. This is a significant sign that light car fuel demand has reached peak.
We believe that light cars have reached the peak of global fuel demand (gasoline and diesel) in 2019, at the time of 2.91 million barrels / days. The peak demand is mainly due to the continuous improvement of automotive fuel economy and emission standards, and the sales of electric vehicles over time continue to increase.
“General Automobile’s statement is a significant sign of road transportation to take off the road to de Carbon. This shows that for more stringent car emission standards are increasing, the pace of energy transformation begins to speed up. In referring to light car fuel demand At the time, the latest signs show that 2019 will be historical high. “- Jim Burkhard, Vice President, Travel and Energy Future
For the oil market, it is important that electric vehicles will replace how much fuel demand.
Our previous research has predicted that by 2050, electric vehicles (including pure electric, plugging and fuel cells) will account for 60-80% of all new car sales (according to our data, 2020) Only 2.2%).
Despite this, due to the large number of global vehicles, and the vehicle replacement requires a lot of time, oil will still be the main source of transportation in the next few years.
In 2020, there were approximately 9.2 million plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) in the global light vehicle. If 20,000 fuel cell electric vehicles are counted, these cars substituted oil consumption is about 150,000 barrels / day, and the global oil consumption is not 0.2%. If you count electric buses and two-wheeled cars, the total oil consumption of these electric vehicles is 370,000 barrels per day, accounting for only 0.4% of 2020 global oil demand.
“By 2020, road transport electricity only replaces approximately 370,000 barrel / day oil demand, accounting for 0.4% of global oil consumption. But it is obvious that this number will continue to rise. By 2025, replaced oil consumption It will be more than 1.5 million barrels / day. “- Jim Burkhard, Vice President, Travel and Energy Future
Under the driving growth of plug-in electric vehicles, the number of electric substitutions will continue to rise. We estimate that by 2025, light-duty electric vehicles will replace about 900,000 to 1.1 million barrels / day oil demand around the world. Plus electric buses and two-wheeled cars, the number of electric replacement oils in road transport will reach 1.4 million barrels / day, which is equivalent to 1.4% of the 2025 global oil demand in our forecast.
Electricity replacement of oil is still relatively small, but significant, because light-driven light vehicles are the largest source of petroleum demand growth in 2000 to 2029. The increasing electrification and the increasing fuel economy and emission standards will play an important role in the stability period and decline in oil demand in the global oil demand. In the basic scene prediction, we expect global oil demand to decline at some point in 10-15 years.
“General Motors’ statement is the latest development of the global automobile electric transformation. This further proves that although there is still a long way to go as major transportation fuel, this road is a single way, Can’t look back. “- Embinhua traveling and energy future director Fellipe Balieiro