Figure | Liu Shijin China Development Research Foundation vice chairman, former deputy director of the State Council Development Research Center
On January 17, 2021, China Electric Motor 100-person Forum (2021) Theme summit was held in the Diaoyutai. In the afternoon, the investment and innovation forum issued by “New Energy Smart Car Investment Logic and Market Value”, the vice chairman of the China Development Research Foundation and Liu Shijin, former Deputy Director of the State Council Development Research Center, conducted a chairman. He believes that China’s economy will maintain medium speed growth during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period. It is necessary to focus on structural potential, and the development of new energy intelligent vehicles is highly consistent. Structural potential will help the automotive industry. .
The following is the speech of Liu Shijin:
This afternoon’s forum is to discuss investment logic and valuation of new energy smart cars, this is a very professional issue. I am neither the industry in the automotive industry, nor is the industry insiders in the investment world, so I can only change one angle, I want to come from China’s economy and “145”, and a longer period of time structure kinetic energy. Some clues are provided for the space and valuation of new energy vehicles.
Economic recovery is in line with expectations, 2021 high-level low
I think a basic logic is if it is consistent with the big direction of economic development, this development space is big, this investment is valuable. Everyone knows that the Chinese economy we first were subjected to the impact of new crown epidemic, but we took the lead in recovery, and the annual economy should have a growth of about 2%. But I want to emphasize that we are not only the only economies in the world’s large economies, but more importantly, the Chinese economy has approached potentially growing level, which is very important. In this case, it is involved in 2021, which is the economic situation this year. I will give you a look at the forecast of our research team.
According to our forecast, the annual growth rate will be 8.7% this year, and the season will exceed 15%, or even 20%. Of course, there is a prerequisite here, that is, if it is normal. Because we have some abnormal, or some uncertain factors. For example, the last few days of the epidemic is in some places. For example, the service industry will not be as expected in the expected development, if there is more, and the original forecast will be a discount, so next step. It is also possible to have an estimate of this uncertainty.
According to our past estimate, if it is normal, there will be 20% of growth in the first quarter, and some comrades may be a bit a little surprised after this number. In fact, it is very normal, it is just a small number illusion because we have a 6.8% growth in the 2020 quarter, which is dug a big pit, so now put the pit, then there is a growth In accordance with the level of potential growth rate, it is equivalent to being a statistical phenomenon. So I think everyone should not cause misunderstanding, don’t think that the Chinese economy will return to high growth tracks, everything is normal, let’s take a step of assessing China’s economic growth, it is to add 2020 and 2021. Averaged averaged 5%, even if it is a quite good growth.
Pay attention to the structural potential of economic development
China’s economy has gradually returned to normal tracks, so macro policies must gradually return to normal tracks. Recently, many comrades are more sensitive to macro policies and discussing. Recently, the Central Political Bureau meeting, the macro policy “is not ridiculous”, but this bend is still going to turn, we strive to turn it better.
From the medium and long-term, the Chinese economy still maintains a medium speed growth, which is the speed of economic growth during the “14th Five-Year Plan” in China’s economy, probably between 5% and 6%. At this level, we must consider a structural potential. What is structural potential? It is China as a backward economy, which is the potential of this growth in the consumer structure, industrial structure, and urbanization.
In the past 30 years, 10% of the high-speed growth, then we also have structural potential, what is it? Real estate, infrastructure, export, these structural potentials are now gradually slowing, and some have obviously resolved. It has now entered the medium-speed growth period, which is the medium-speed growth period of 5% to 6%. This medium-speed growth period should not be underestimated. In fact, this figure sometimes causing people’s illusion, because our base is expanded every year. In fact, China’s annual new incremental growth is also the first place. For example, in 2019, or 2018, our new increment is equivalent to an Australian economy, so we will continue to 5% to 6% growth speed, such a large new increasing? I would like to ask everyone to pay more attention to the structural potential of the medium-speed growth period in addition to the macro policy. China’s economy can also maintain a growth than developed economies, which is more than twice as high as developed economies, which is mainly based on structural potential.
For the structural potential of new medium growth periods, I want to propose a framework for “1 + 3 + 2” structure potential.
The so-called “1” is the development of a city circle and urban agglomeration. Since China has reform and opening up, we have been promoting urbanization, but urbanization is different from different periods. About recent years, the focus is the urban circle and city circle. why? Because only this, we can have higher elements aggregation efficiency. We probably have an estimate, during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, and for a longer period of time, China’s economic growth is 70%, 80% is within this scope, this is a big article, this is the master battlefield. The so-called “3” is in the process of entity economic cycle, I think it takes to make up new three shorts. In the past few years, we have made three big shorts, and it is still very significant, some are still complete, and now it is still making. The next step is the new three short shorts:
The first is a short board with high efficiency, that is, our basic industries. There are administrative monopoly in varying degrees, the efficiency is not high, the cost is high, but it is not only the cost of these industries. It promotes all What is the problem of reform in this area? Solve the cost of all society.
The second short board is a short plate that is small in the medium-income group. We now have about 400 million people in the middle income group, which is less than 900 million in this standard. We want to make a goal, in the next 10-15 years, so that China’s secondary income group can double, it is to turn the current 4: 9 into 9: 4, which means that the middle income group can be 8-9 billion people. Why do you want this? Because only do this, this part of the person enters the medium group by a population below the medium income level, they are the main force of the next consumption.
The third is a short board that is not strong in basic research and development. We have developed some areas that have been turned into and run or even lead. However, from the whole, especially from the process of research and development, or the internal cycle, our short board is also obvious. What kind of short board? It is the basic research and development, the source innovation this short board. For recent time, we discuss how the United States cards our neck problems, but let’s look back, in our internal cycle, have we there is a link to your own neck? It is this link. So we only have to make up this short board, it can effectively respond to the problem of external card necks to truly become an innovative country.
The so-called “2” is two wings in digital economy and green, which is the kinetic energy in the world, China has a certain advantage.
Simply, “1 + 3 + 2” is China’s economy I think we will drive the main structural kinetic energy of China’s economic growth.
Structural potential to drive high-quality development in the automotive industry
What is the relationship between these structural kinetic energy and our automotive industry? I want to make a few points here, I think you may have some more and more detailed understanding and analysis.
First, the urban circle and urban agglomeration can drive the needs of the car. I especially emphasize that circle, we now develop a city circle, which is within an hour’s drive, and develop a large number of small towns or small towns in the original core city. For these small towns, the small town can connect it with rail transit, but quite part of the car can use the car and use our new energy smart car. Where is the new energy smart car? This piece is probably row front.
Second, the basic industry efficiency will reduce the cost of production and use of the automotive industry. Just talked about cost, this area is to solve this problem, and it is also the same for the automotive industry.
Third, the middle income group is expanded is an important source of car demand consumption growth. I don’t dare to say it most important now, I think the first is also the second demand source. I especially I really want to emphasize that we have recently said China is the largest consumer market, generally 400 million secondary income groups. No problem, this part of the person is definitely the main force of China’s current consumption upgrade. But I thought we put more about the 900 million people I just mentioned, the more than 900 million people of relatively low income, especially those who may enter the middle income group in the future, I I thought this is the focus of new energy intelligent car consumption.
I have seen the new energy smart car out of the past, some grades are very high, no problem, there is definitely the object it needs. But how can you meet the needs of the $ 45 billion people who have just said that they are about to enter the middle income group? This article is done, I think the development of our industry may be more important for the development of some companies.
Fourth, digital technology boosted the electricity, intelligent, sharing of automobiles, and we now talk about the “threeization” of the car, in fact, as a basis for digital technology.
Finally, I would like to emphasize the recent major progress, and General Secretary Xi Decontinated 30/60 goals, 2030 carbon peaks, 2060 to achieve carbon, this is the Chinese car consumption structure, industrial structure The impact is long, huge, in fact, is also practical.
I will give a simple example here. China now has a per capita carbon emission of more than 7 tons, and it exceeds the UK, a part of European developed countries. But our per capita GDP is now 10,000 US dollars, next to $ 20,000, $ 30,000, or even $ 40,000, because “14th Five-Year Plan” makes our per capita GDP to achieve medium developed The level of the country. This is not just 20,000 US dollars, it is necessary to exceed $ 20,000, to 30,000, 40,000 US dollars. But we immediately carbon, how is this implementation? It is necessary to run fast, this horse has to graze, especially if it is no longer discharged, which is also a practical problem. Animal emissions are actually a very important source of greenhouse gases. Here I am just a metaphor, that is, this horse may have to change the horse, we have a series of new technologies to meet this demand. I want to be the first in the middle of the car. So I want to tell this relationship, it is from the next step of China’s economy. I will talk about the perspective of structural potential. It can be seen that new energy smart cars and structural potential are highly consistent, so I have the development of this industry. Full of confidence, we have to valuize. If you are right in this direction, in fact, you often spend the valuation, in the wind, etc., the key is the big direction.
How is structural potential implementation?
I will turn over and say how our structural potential is achieved, that is, how can the value of new energy smart cars can be realized? The next step is also to promote reform, because our structural potential is quite a few still can’t see it, so I simply say that we need to promote five reforms:
First, accelerate the reform of rural land system, promote the use of rural collective construction, and create conditions to allow the homestead to use the exterior of the collective organization. Time relationship is not disconnected, I will take some questions.
Second, spatial planning, including urban planning, it is necessary to pay attention to the basic role of the market. We should follow the population to configure land, resources and basic public services.
Third, oil and gas, electricity, railway, communication, finance, etc. Inframeous actions, promoting competition, have some iconic actions, which is the reform of this field. Can not be said, must have a signature, substantive big action. In this case, the cost of our whole society, including the cost of new energy vehicles, and consumption can be lowered.
Fourth, accelerate the equalization of basic public services.
Fifth, deepen the reform in the field of education and basic research in high-level universities.
The urgent task is to implement the Third, Fourth, Five Plenary Sections and 19th National Central Committee, and the 19th National Fifth Plenary on reform and opening up, in this case, we can take a substance in building a high standard market economy system. Sex pace.
In addition, I want to simply talk about the way the reform is equally important. The top floor is mainly referring to the direction. When is the eastern direction of the west, it is not wrong, and the bottom line is discovered, what is not doing, what is avoided Under this premise, what kind of institutional mechanism policy is suitable for our national conditions? Including the new energy vehicle field, from our market itself, it is also a lot of discussion, what kind of institutional and policy are suitable for China’s national conditions. I want to allow our places, industries, enterprises, and individuals to try, and find something right through trial error. In this sense, there is still a stone crossing the river. Some people say that the reform is open for 40 years, will it also touch the stone cross the river? It is because our different periods are different rivers. Now that we have passed the high quality development, we have to touch the stone to cross the river to find truly suitable for our country, our industry institutional mechanisms and policies.
The next step is to effectively promote the enthusiasm, creativity of local enterprises, industries, individuals, and effectively promote the reform process in key fields such as land, finance, taxation, social security, national-funded state-owned enterprises, system rules, etc., so that all aspects of new growth kinetic energy It is fully released to promote the vitality, toughness and sustainable high quality development of China’s economy.